Mantic Raises $25M After AI Outperforms Humans in Forecasting Competition
London-based AI startup Mantic has raised $25 million in seed funding after its artificial intelligence system outperformed human participants in the 2026 Metaculus Cup, an online competition focused on predicting real-world events. The round was led by Radical Ventures, with participation from Microsoft’s M12, Thinking Machines Lab, Balderton Capital and other investors.
The results have given Mantic a high-profile demonstration for its approach to AI forecasting. Its system assigns probabilities to future political, economic and cultural developments and, according to the competition results reported by Reuters, outperformed every human contestant and all but one competing AI system.
AI Takes on Human Forecasting
Mantic specialises in adapting existing frontier AI models specifically for forecasting rather than developing a model solely for general-purpose tasks. The system tests predictions against historical information, evaluates its accuracy and uses the results to improve future forecasts.
The company was founded in 2024 by Toby Shevlane, a former Google DeepMind research scientist, and Ben Day. Mantic's system is designed to make medium-term predictions across areas including geopolitics, business, economics, technology and culture.
Mantic Beats Human Consensus
One of the system's reported advantages during the Metaculus Cup was its ability to avoid following the majority view when the available evidence pointed elsewhere. Mantic reportedly gave Colombian presidential candidate Abelardo De La Espriella about a 40% chance of winning, compared with a roughly 30% consensus forecast among human participants. He ultimately won the election.
In another example cited by Mantic's CEO, human forecasters largely expected Shakira's “Dai Dai” not to overtake “Waka Waka” on the Billboard Hot 100, while Mantic did not make the same strong assumption. The company says these cases illustrate how its system can avoid some forms of herd behaviour in collective forecasting.
$25M Funding Targets Commercial Expansion
Radical Ventures led the new funding round, with Microsoft's venture arm M12, Thinking Machines Lab and Balderton Capital also participating. The valuation was not disclosed.
Mantic says its technology is already attracting interest from companies and government agencies, with some organisations having integrated its forecasting systems. The company has not disclosed the names of its customers, while Radical Ventures said hedge funds and trading firms have shown particular interest in the technology.
Forecasting Moves Toward Business Applications
Mantic is targeting organisations that need to make decisions under uncertainty, including businesses, financial firms and government agencies. Its platform is designed to generate probabilistic forecasts and continuously update them as new information becomes available.
The funding gives Mantic room to expand its forecasting technology and commercial operations. Its performance in the Metaculus Cup does not establish that AI can consistently predict complex future events, but it provides a measurable benchmark for the company's approach and adds momentum to the growing use of AI for forecasting and decision support.
